Sometimes, filers see a refund after they overpay taxes all year long by way of paycheck withholdings or estimated funds. Filers typically have a stability due after they do not pay sufficient.
Early on Feb. 13, Treasury Secretary and performing IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent advised CNBC’s “Squawk Field” the common tax refund was 22% greater to date this season. It wasn’t clear what number of days of returns Bessent’s determine included or what comparability interval he used.
IRS submitting season statistics launched in a while Feb. 13 confirmed the common refund was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up about 11% from one 12 months prior. The Treasury has not responded to CNBC’s requests for remark in regards to the discrepancy.
Nevertheless, “we’re nonetheless very early in tax submitting season,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax coverage for the Bipartisan Coverage Middle, a nonprofit suppose tank, advised CNBC.
The submitting season opened Jan. 26, and the primary batch of IRS knowledge included returns by Feb. 6. Sometimes, the typical refund measurement “pops” in late February as soon as funds embrace the earned revenue tax credit score or extra baby tax credit score, Lautz stated.
Presently, “it is method too early to inform if any knowledge factors are sturdy tendencies,” he stated.
How a lot larger tax refunds could possibly be
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Because the IRS shares extra submitting knowledge, the typical refund in contrast with 2025 may improve, based on a Feb. 18 notice from Financial institution of America Securities.
The corporate expects Trump’s tax legislation adjustments may create “about $1,000 of stimulus per family, on common,” in the course of the 2026 tax submitting season. About half of that change may come from the upper cap on the federal deduction for state and native taxes, generally known as SALT, and the “no tax on extra time” deduction, analysts wrote.
This refund estimate aligns with October analysis from funding financial institution Piper Sandler, which projected that Trump’s “retroactive tax cuts may common about $1,000 per return, although it is going to be considerably extra for some filers.”
In 2025, the common tax refund by Oct. 17 was $3,052, based on IRS knowledge.
Nevertheless, particular person refunds may range considerably this season, relying on 2025 withholdings and which of Trump’s new provisions impression that taxpayer’s scenario.