9/19/25 – Profitable merchants fail extra due to stagnation than as a result of they blow up. They focus a lot on “plan your commerce and commerce your plan” that they by no means create new, extra promising plans to commerce. What creates an enduring enterprise is considering outdoors the field, observing totally different market relationships, and discovering contemporary sources of edge. The joy of discovery and the reward of doing new issues retains us actively engaged. Drawdowns of P/L do not need to turn out to be emotional drawdowns if we’re at all times exploring, at all times discovering.
A novel concept that got here to me is that we will create momentum curves for every sector inside the SPX universe. Thus we have a look at the share of shares above the totally different transferring averages inside the know-how, client discretionary, utilities, communications, and different sectors. What we will clearly see is that “uneven” index markets are hiding sector rotation. Throughout the uneven interval, funds are flowing out of some sectors and into others. Uneven markets are literally rotational markets.
It seems that opens quite a lot of sources of edge. Extra to come–
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9/18/25 – It’s a problem to make ourselves, and it is doubly difficult to unlearn what we have absorbed and remake ourselves. After we concern to lose, we have misplaced alternative and that’s the nice lack of all.
Profitable merchants fail as a result of they can not let go of what has labored previously to find and develop contemporary alternative going ahead. All edges in markets have expiration dates. Ultimately they’re found, exploited, and lose their distinctive worth. The profitable dealer will not be one with an edge, however one who has developed the power to domesticate new and totally different edges.
However that takes the power to embrace uncertainty in addition to the eagerness for studying new issues. Buying and selling will not be a journey to a vacation spot. It’s a steady strategy of evolution. If we do not love change, change absolutely will depart us behind. In creating the brand new, we renew ourselves.