10/13/2025 – TraderFeed will likely be on trip whereas I ramp up my analysis platform and apply it to those markets. I stay up for sharing insights and experiences.
Friday’s market was a dramatic reminder that counting on visible inspection of chart patterns and technical indicators for buying and selling has its limitations. As soon as vital information comes out, market participation adjustments (quantity, volatility) and the patterns that had proven up in earlier buying and selling can not be counted upon. For instance, earlier oversold ranges that might be counted upon for bounces now would possibly merely result in additional draw back.
The important thing takeaway is that *who* is available in the market defines the character of buying and selling alternative. When quantity and volatility increase resulting from elevated institutional participation, solely historic evaluation of comparable durations can present perception into buying and selling alternative.
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10/10/2025 – One factor I have been in a position to recognize from my breadth-based analysis is that chance just isn’t distributed evenly available in the market. There are durations wherein backtests present little to no edge going ahead, and there are durations when the backtests present a really distinct historic bias towards directional strikes. These durations of alternative are typically ones wherein a number of backtests of market conduct carried out over totally different time frames line up–and these then line up with present value motion. An instance can be a market that reveals a bullish edge from 3-5 days out and in addition for 20+ days out. Intraday, there may be promoting that can’t push costs to a contemporary low, in order that we get short-term oversold readings at increased value lows.
These alternatives will not be frequent, however they’re unusually promising and worthwhile. Sizing all positions equally (i.e., taking the identical danger in nice alternative markets and modest alternative ones) is inefficient. Invariably, once I come throughout a really profitable dealer, I discover somebody in a position to: a) considerably measurement up researched excessive alternative trades and b) successfully handle the draw back danger of those trades. A significant share of their weekly and month-to-month earnings comes from a comparatively small share of their trades.
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10/8/2025 – Beginning Monday, I will likely be taking a break from common posting on TraderFeed to arrange my breadth-based buying and selling platform and start buying and selling the patterns I have been observing in my analysis. What I can share is that what many merchants do not look at–how cash is flowing from sure sectors of the inventory market to others–is related to non-random returns over time durations most merchants do not take a look at (20+ days out). An edge just isn’t one thing that’s current or not current available in the market, however one thing that evolves as flows shift from daily. Our job is to know and observe that evolution. A significant drawback in buying and selling psychology is myopia: we so concentrate on the current that we lose sight of the perimeters from days and weeks in the past which can be impacting how markets commerce now. Each buying and selling day happens inside a context. We lose very important data after we solely take a look at the day and miss the bigger context.
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Why not carry this mannequin to the teaching of merchants and create better alternatives for change? Merchants would meet with a number of coaches in a gaggle setting and would carry their questions and challenges to the crew of coaches. One coach, for instance, would possibly concentrate on how adjustments within the dealer’s psychology may assist their buying and selling. One other coach would possibly emphasize buying and selling enhancements that might assist the dealer’s psychology. As a result of the crew teaching is carried out in a gaggle session, it’s inexpensive for merchants and in addition permits merchants to be taught from the questions of others and the a number of responses of coaches. It is a dynamic studying setting: energetic and interactive.
We create better alternative after we innovate–in buying and selling and in all areas of life!
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10/6/2025 – I get quite a lot of emails asking for assist with buying and selling self-discipline. The merchants really feel that they’ll establish alternative, however then violate their guidelines/stops/buying and selling plans within the warmth of motion. They acknowledge that chance is simply alternative if we will act upon it in a deliberate, disciplined method. They’re asking for recommendation that may assist them instill such self-control.
The important thing psychological precept right here is that buying and selling guidelines have to be internalized as buying and selling habits earlier than we will pursue significant risk-taking. In different phrases, we’ve got to: a) outline the foundations for our buying and selling that replicate our greatest practices; b) flip these guidelines into checklists and step-by-step templates for motion; after which c) repeat the appliance of those greatest practices many times in apply/simulated buying and selling after which in small-size buying and selling till they’re internalized as automated behavior patterns.
We don’t achieve self-discipline by exercising self-control; we obtain self-discipline by turning desired behaviors into behavior patterns. Then we will act upon alternative constantly.
The error many creating merchants are making is that they are attempting to make money–and take significant risk–before they’ve actually internalized their greatest buying and selling practices. Till they construct sturdy behavior patterns round their greatest buying and selling, they are going to be weak when market occasions distract them.
After all, the opposite purpose for apply/simulated buying and selling is to strive issues out, be taught from our successes, determine what we do greatest, and seize that data as greatest practices. If we try and commerce earlier than we totally perceive what goes into our profitable buying and selling, we are going to fall sufferer to impulsive decision-making.
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10/5/2025 – No quantity of fixing your bait, casting your fishing rod in a different way, and enhancing your psychological outlook will allow you to catch fish for those who’re fishing within the incorrect physique of water. Many merchants expertise frustration of their work, not due to any intrinsic emotional issues and never as a result of they should tweak their entries/exits, however as a result of they don’t seem to be focusing their buying and selling on the areas of biggest alternative. If what you are buying and selling is not transferring a lot, no switching of technical indicators, buying and selling types, or psychological workouts will allow you to make important returns.
Think about the U.S. inventory market this previous month. Have a look at returns in semiconductor shares (SMH) over that interval; then take a look at returns in shopper staples shares (XLP) over the identical interval; after which take a look at regional banking shares (KRE). Individuals in these markets had been fishing in very totally different ponds.
A significant supply of motion within the inventory market comes from rotation from one group of sectors to others, as establishments pursue funding themes. Catching these rotations is a good way to seek out one of the best fishing ponds. It is vital to verify we’re enjoying the correct video games earlier than we work on enhancing the sport we’re enjoying.