An financial slowdown south of the border is not a forecast, it’s a reality. U.S. GDP progress got here in at simply 1.4% annualized within the fourth quarter, unemployment was 4.4% in Februaryand commerce coverage uncertainty continues to be unresolved. For Canadian traders, meaning the query has shifted from “what if the U.S. slows” to “which of my holdings can preserve incomes whereas it does.”
U.S. demand influences every little thing from manufacturing unit output to freight volumes to vitality costs, and the TSX consists of loads of Canadian shares that rely upon that engine. That’s why it helps to personal a couple of companies that may preserve incomes at the same time as progress cools.
Supply: Getty Photographs
TIH
Toromont Industries (TSX: QUIET) appears constructed for a softer U.S. backdrop because it makes cash from protecting gear working, not simply from promoting shiny new machines. It sells and providers heavy gear by means of its Gear Group, and it owns CIMCO, which builds industrial refrigeration programs for meals and cold-chain infrastructure. During the last yr, it benefited from regular product help demand and powerful order exercise, even whereas administration talked brazenly about “macroeconomic and commerce uncertainty.”
The newest outcomes confirmed that it could keep regular even with out a booming economic system. In This fall 2025, income rose 9% to $1.42 billion, and web earnings edged as much as $157.2 million, or $1.93 per share. For full-year 2025, income rose 4% to $5.2028 billion, with web earnings of $496.6 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.11. It additionally elevated its quarterly dividend to $0.56 per share. Valuation stays premium, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) round 33.6 and a ahead P/E round 23.1, so the danger is that any slowdown compresses the a number of even when the enterprise retains performing.
ONE
Birchcliff Vitality (TSX:BIR) can maintain up in a U.S. slowdown because it runs a low-cost Montney gasoline enterprise with significant publicity to higher-priced markets. It leaned into market diversification, promoting into Daybreak and NYMEX-linked pricing reasonably than dwelling and dying by AECO. During the last yr, that positioning mattered as gasoline pricing swung round, and Birchcliff centered on doing the fundamentals properly: develop manufacturing, scale back debt, and preserve a base dividend that doesn’t power unhealthy selections.
In 2025, it generated adjusted funds circulate of $422.8 million in 2025, up sharply from 2024, and free funds circulate of $116.9 million. It decreased whole debt to $459.9 million and improved its whole debt to adjusted funds circulate ratio to 1.1 instances at year-end 2025. That form of balance-sheet progress can matter greater than a scorching commodity tape if the U.S. slows and threat urge for food fades. The valuation nonetheless bakes in some warning, with a trailing P/E round 24.4, and the principle threat stays apparent: a weak gasoline market can nonetheless bully any producer, even a disciplined one.
GIL
Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL) won’t sound defensive at first, however fundamentals might be surprisingly sturdy in a slower economic system. Individuals could delay large purchases, however they nonetheless purchase on a regular basis attire, and corporations nonetheless order printwear for uniforms, occasions, and workwear. During the last yr, Gildan additionally reshaped its story with the HanesBrands acquisition, which added scale and types.
The most recent quarter put actual numbers behind that momentum. In This fall 2025, it reported web gross sales of about US$1.08 billion, up 31.3% yr over yr, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.96. Money circulate from operations got here in at $336 million, and free money circulate reached $304 million for the quarter, with full-year free money circulate of $493 million. It additionally introduced a ten% dividend enhance for 2026 and talked about focusing on significant price financial savings from the deal.
Backside line
You do not want to cover below the sofa when the U.S. slows, however you do need to personal firms that may preserve producing actual outcomes. Not one of the shares I talked about are risk-free, however every has a sensible motive it could preserve standing, even when the U.S. economic system takes a breather. That’s the form of considering that comes up on a regular basis in Inventory Advisor Canada: Spend money on shares with a motive to carry up, not only a hope. If that message resonates with you, it’s price trying out.