Short-term tradable bottom? The CBOE Volatility Index has spiked to 29, but more importantly, the VIX curve (the prices of near-term VIX options) is now in backwardation : that is, the prices of near-term contracts (cash and the March options contract) are now higher than options contracts further out (April, May, June). This is unusual and indicates … Read more
The S & P 500 is now within roughly a half-percent of a 10% decline from its recent high. That would be a garden-variety correction, and it would be based on: 1) very rich valuations (the S & P 500 was trading at a multiple of 22 times 2025 estimates, historically high), and 2) a modest … Read more
No matter where you look, there have been significant losses in global markets, but they have not been distributed evenly. The S & P 500 closed Friday with a market capitalization of $42.99 trillion, a two-day loss of $5.06 trillion or 10.5% compared to its market capitalization Wednesday night, when President Trump raised U.S. tariffs … Read more
The S & P 500 is inches away from a decline of 20% from its recent closing high on February 19. This, we are told, would constitute a “bear market.” But who decided that a drop of 20% was a “bear market?” For that matter, who decided a drop of 10% was a “correction?” If you … Read more
It was another weekend of head-spinning news, but we are no closer to figuring out what the right level should be for stocks. The good news is that while President Donald Trump has a higher pain threshold than most thought, there is a pain threshold, and the tariff exemption on the electronics industry means that … Read more
The S & P 500 went from 5,670 at the closing high on April 2 to a low of 4,982 at the closing low on April 8, a drop of about 12%. Stocks have since regained a large chunk of that loss. Very large parts of the market have staged a nice bounce back, and … Read more
Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox. Here’s what CNBC TV’s producers were watching and what’s on the radar for the next session. The Nasdaq Composite The tech-heavy Nasdaq … Read more
It’s a tough time if you believe in following historical seasonal indicators for the stock market. Since 1950, April is the second best month for the S & P 500 (up an average 1.5%), and the best month for the Dow Industrials (up an average 1.8%), according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac . That hasn’t … Read more
