In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide what projects to … Read more
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting … Read more
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same time, in much of the word, governments … Read more
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the real … Read more
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up … Read more
