Suncor Power (TSX: SU) has remodeled itself in the previous few years. Because of this, Suncor Power’s inventory worth has rallied virtually 70% within the final three years. A brand new CEO, loads of cost-cutting and effectivity features later, and Suncor continues to interrupt information.
However what’s in retailer for 2026? Can Suncor Power inventory proceed its successful streak?
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Shareholder returns focus, with elevated buybacks
I’d like to start out off by highlighting Suncor’s dedication to shareholder returns. That is one thing that has taken the corporate and Suncor’s inventory worth to new heights. I touched upon the inventory’s 70% achieve in my introduction. However there’s extra. Since 2023, Suncor’s annual dividend has elevated 15.4% to the present $2.40.
Together with all of this, Suncor has been shopping for again shares. This has introduced further worth to shareholders by lowering the variety of shares excellent, thereby enhancing the worth of the remaining shares. In 2026, Suncor elevated its dedication to shareholders by rising share buybacks by 10% to $275 million per 30 days. This equates to an anticipated $3.3 billion of repurchases in 2026.
This dedication to shareholder worth creation is clear by these information. However these information are much more spectacular once we think about the truth that oil costs have declined fairly considerably since 2023.
Suncor: Not outlined by commodity cycles
Suncor’s aim has been fairly clear — transformation. Transformation from a cyclical firm whose fortunes are tied to grease costs to an industrial machine that has management over its personal fortunes. As Suncor Power’s CEO places it, an organization that’s “not outlined by commodity cycles.”
We are able to anticipate Suncor’s ends in 2026 to more and more replicate this. As Suncor continues to maneuver towards being an organization that’s predictable and dependable whatever the exterior atmosphere, this shall be mirrored in its outcomes.
Already, this has been an indicator of Suncor’s current outcomes. Within the third quarter, Suncor’s adjusted funds from operations got here in at $3.8 billion or $3.16 per share. This was the second-highest third quarter in historical past. Suncor achieved this end result regardless of decrease West Texas Intermediate oil costs.
In Suncor’s most up-to-date quarter, we noticed extra of the identical. Oil costs have been 15% decrease in comparison with the prior 12 months. But, Suncor reported sturdy earnings and money flows, with adjusted funds move coming in solely 8% decrease. Additionally, This fall money move was 6% greater sequentially regardless of oil being at $59 versus $71. This was pushed by greater manufacturing and decrease prices.
What’s in retailer for 2026?
Suncor’s current success is mirrored within the firm’s file upstream manufacturing, file refining throughput and file asset utilization ranges. These measures are all measures of productiveness, effectivity, and all-around operational power.
The purpose right here is that Suncor continues to strengthen its enterprise, and no matter oil costs, the corporate is creating shareholder worth. That is evidenced in the truth that the oil worth at which Suncor breaks even continues to fall. It now stands within the low $40 vary. Oil costs are buying and selling within the mid-$60 vary at present.
The underside line
In 2026, the corporate will doubtless proceed to profit from this dynamic. The main focus will stay on monetary resiliency and predictability. We are able to anticipate an replace in March, the place Suncor will define its enchancment plans for the following three to fifteen years out. The corporate’s imaginative and prescient is to be a predictable and dependable industrial firm with a deal with shareholder returns and worth creation. We’re beginning to see this in Suncor’s outcomes. We are able to anticipate to see extra of it within the 12 months and years forward, which is more likely to drive Suncor Power’s inventory worth and shareholder returns greater.