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U.S. tech appeared unbeatable for some time. It mixed big earnings with a easy story: synthetic intelligence (AI) will elevate the whole lot, and the largest platforms will take the largest slice. That story nonetheless has legs, however the market began charging lease for it. Valuations obtained stretched, traders have began nitpicking margins, and each earnings report now must be excellent. A TSX inventory can look higher when it nonetheless has actual progress, but it surely additionally has a transparent, repeatable engine that doesn’t depend upon the following hype cycle.
Think about Shopify
During the last yr, Shopify (TSX:SHOP) has reminded traders it will probably develop like a rocket and nonetheless act like an grownup about money. It posted 2025 income of US$11.6 billion, up 30%, and it generated US$2 billion in free money circulation for the yr. The information circulation has additionally highlighted a giant strategic shift. Shopify inventory needs to personal the rails of recent commerce, not simply the net retailer.
It leaned into funds, B2B, offline, and instruments that make promoting throughout channels simpler, whereas additionally pushing arduous on AI options designed to assist retailers construct quicker and promote smarter. In its newest replace, administration framed 2026 as a brand new period of AI commerce, and it known as out investments throughout merchandise like Catalog, Sidekick, and its broader platform.
On the identical time, Shopify inventory can swing arduous on one element, even when the headline outcomes look robust. After the newest report, traders centered on revenue and money circulation margins, and the inventory offered off regardless of a punchy income outlook. That’s the trade-off. You get progress, however you need to tolerate temper swings.
Into earnings
Within the fourth quarter of 2025, Shopify inventory reported income of US$3.7 billion, up 31% yr over yr, and gross merchandise quantity of US$123.8 billion, additionally up 31%. It posted working earnings of US$631 million and free money circulation of US$715 million, which labored out to a 19% free money circulation margin. That blend reveals each scale and self-discipline, and it explains why traders nonetheless deal with it as certainly one of Canada’s true world tech champions.
The 2026 setup appears busy in a great way. Administration expects Q1 2026 income progress within the low-thirties proportion vary yr over yr, which indicators confidence that demand stays resilient. It additionally licensed a US$2 billion share repurchase program, which tells you it believes it will probably make investments for progress and nonetheless return capital from a place of power.
Valuation is the one space the place you don’t get to faux it’s “low cost.” Shopify inventory trades like a premium progress enterprise as a result of the market expects it to maintain compounding. The way in which I have a look at it’s easy: you’re paying up for sturdy progress, not for a discount. If progress slows or margins disappoint, the a number of can compress quick.
Backside line
So, may Shopify inventory be a purchase as a substitute of loading up on U.S. tech? Sure, if you need a single TSX identify with world attain, actual scale, and a observe document of turning progress into money, and you’ll abdomen volatility. No, if you need a “sleep effectively each night time” inventory, or in the event you can’t deal with a premium valuation in a market that has began to query software program winners extra aggressively. For those who really feel completed with chasing the identical U.S. mega-caps, Shopify inventory provides you a special strategy to personal tech’s upside, with a Canadian ticker and a enterprise that also has rather a lot to show in 2026.