Gold appears tempting proper now, however it isn’t a easy sure or no. Spot gold has been holding close to the US$5,000 degree, which reveals concern and uncertainty nonetheless drive demand. Canadians ought to think about gold solely as a small stabilizer in a diversified portfolio, not as a high-conviction development guess. In the event you personal none, beginning modestly could make sense. In the event you already maintain a significant quantity, chasing this rally can backfire quick. But buyers might nonetheless look past gold, to gold shares.
AGI
Alamos Gold (TSX:AGI) affords a extra energetic solution to categorical a gold view. It’s a Canadian-listed producer with working mines and development tasks, and Island Gold in Ontario sits on the centre of its long-term story. As an alternative of simply monitoring the metallic, you get leverage to execution, value management, and venture supply. That may work fantastically when administration hits targets. It may sting when one thing slips.
The final yr introduced a gradual drip of milestones and reminders. In mid-January, Alamos reported fourth-quarter and annual 2025 manufacturing and highlighted stability sheet energy, with money and money equivalents rising to $623 million at year-end and internet money of $423 million. That issues as a result of it suggests Alamos can fund development internally, which might cut back dilution danger when capital markets get choosy.
It additionally set the stage for a brand new chapter. Alamos mentioned it will present up to date three-year manufacturing and working steerage in February 2026. In a scorching gold period, that timing issues. Buyers will need proof that margins and money movement can sustain, even when gold cools.
The latest outlook headline was daring. In early February, Alamos outlined three-year working steerage that targets 46% manufacturing development by 2028 and almost a 20% lower in AISC, with a longer-term path towards a million ounces yearly by 2030, pushed by the multi-phase growth of the Island Gold District and the start-up of Lynn Lake. That’s the sort of plan that may flip a gold inventory right into a compounding story, not only a value chart.
Into earnings
Latest earnings confirmed the enterprise can already throw off actual earnings. Within the third quarter of 2025, Alamos bought 136,473 ounces of gold for document working revenues of $462.3 million, with a median realized gold value of $3,359 per ounce. It reported internet earnings of $276.3 million and adjusted earnings of $155.5 million, or $0.37 per share. These numbers assist clarify why the market has stayed .
Prices stayed in a workable vary for a grower. In Q3 2025, Alamos reported complete money prices of $973 per ounce and AISC of $1,375 per ounce, which it described as per the prior yr interval. It additionally pointed to significant development capital aimed toward Island Gold’s Part 3+ growth, which might strain near-term free money movement however assist greater output later. That is the place persistence pays, or breaks.
Valuation provides a closing layer of danger. The gold inventory trades at about 34.7 instances earnings, and it reveals a small ahead dividend yield round 0.23%.That blend tells you buyers already anticipate development, and the dividend is not going to cushion a lot draw back if the gold value turns. You purchase Alamos for the build-out and the working torque, not for revenue.
Backside line
So, might AGI be a purchase for Canadians proper now? It might, if you’d like publicity to gold with a gold inventory that has money, a transparent development roadmap, and a acknowledged plan to decrease prices over time. It is also a cross if you’d like one thing calmer, or in the event you fear that gold close to document ranges leaves much less margin for error. Both manner, measurement it like a unstable place, as a result of it should behave like one. Watch two issues within the subsequent replace: progress at Island Gold and steerage for AISC. If these traits transfer the unsuitable manner, the market can reprice the inventory shortly in a single day.