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Remorse exhibits up once you replay 2025 with as we speak’s costs, however the helpful query stays easy: Did you purchase a enterprise or did you purchase a narrative? Remorse can train you greater than wins in the event you let it proper now. Excessive charges, headline swings, and fast “coverage pivot” rumours made it simple to chase momentum and name it conviction. While you look again, separate dangerous course of from dangerous luck. Write down what you thought would occur, what needed to be true, and the way lengthy you deliberate to attend. Then verify whether or not you adopted your individual guidelines on place dimension, diversification, and threat. Do you want an instance? Let’s have a look at mine.
WEED
Yep, I invested in Cover Progress (TSX:WEED) again within the day and definitely acquired some wins. It sits close to the centre of Canada’s hashish boom-and-bust story. The hashish inventory sells marijuana in Canada throughout adult-use and medical channels, and it additionally sells vaporizers via Storz & Bickel. It manufacturers its merchandise with names many buyers acknowledge, like Tweed and 7ACRES. The inventory nonetheless attracts consideration because it looks like a “one headline away” identify, for higher or worse.
During the last 12 months, Cover’s information move regarded like a mixture of hope and laborious actuality. Merchants chased U.S. coverage headlines, particularly the push to maneuver marijuana to a much less restrictive federal schedule, as that concept can change taxes and financing for the trade. The headlines sparked sharp strikes, however the follow-through stayed unsure, and buyers stored pricing in delays. That hole between hype and timelines punished anybody who purchased the pop and forgot the calendar.
Cover additionally stored attempting to reshape its steadiness sheet and its path into america. In January 2026, it introduced recapitalization transactions and plans to refinance and lengthen maturities, with proceeds aimed toward paying down current secured debt and funding common company wants. That kind of transfer can purchase time, nevertheless it additionally reminds you that WEED inventory nonetheless wants monetary engineering alongside operational enchancment.
earnings
Now for the numbers that mattered most. In its second quarter of fiscal 2026, WEED inventory reported consolidated web income of $67 million, up 6% 12 months over 12 months. It generated hashish web income of $51 million, with $24 million from Canadian adult-use and $22 million from Canadian medical. The corporate additionally reported $298 million of money and money equivalents, and it stated that money exceeded debt balances by about $70 million at quarter’s finish.
These outcomes confirmed actual progress in just a few locations. Cover minimize promoting, common, and administrative bills by 13% 12 months over 12 months, and it stated it captured $21 million of annualized financial savings since Mar. 1, 2025. It additionally narrowed its adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss to $3 million from $6 million a 12 months earlier. Buyers ought to like that route, as value management can create respiratory room when pricing stress hits, and customers commerce down.
Nevertheless, valuation tells a harsher story, and it explains lots of the remorse. On current quotes, WEED inventory traded round $1.50 per share with a market cap close to $602 million, and it confirmed a deeply destructive trailing earnings per share of $2.67. The inventory additionally sat method down from 52-week highs, down 48% at writing, which alerts how shortly sentiment can flip on this house. Even an honest quarter can’t repair a damaged long-term chart by itself.
Backside line
Trying forward, WEED inventory’s bull case wants greater than a single catalyst. It wants sustained share positive factors in Canada, continued expense self-discipline, and a clearer path to worth from its U.S. pursuits, together with manufacturers like Wana Manufacturers and Jetty Extracts underneath the Cover USA umbrella. The bear case nonetheless seems acquainted: ongoing losses, dilution threat if capital wants return, and regulatory timelines that transfer at political pace, not market pace. That’s why I made a decision to chop my losses into one thing extra steady.
For as we speak’s investor, set triggers. A string of quarters with shrinking losses, money energy, and steering you’ll be able to belief. If a U.S. coverage shift arrives, assume volatility, not certainty. Resolve the place you’re taking earnings or minimize losses, then follow it.