New Delhi: India’s on-line retail and providers market is predicted to greater than double over the following 5 years, with the following part of progress pushed by smaller cities and middle-income teams, in accordance with Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
The e-commerce market is projected to develop from round $140 billion at current to as much as $300 billion by 2030, BCG mentioned in its newest report. Nevertheless, on-line spending will account for less than 7-8% of whole client expenditure, highlighting headroom for future growth.
The report estimates that the nation’s whole client spending throughout services is predicted to rise as much as $3.7 trillion by 2030, up from $2.3 trillion in 2025. Regardless of the fast rise of digital commerce, the report underscored the parallel growth of offline retail, which grew at 13-14% yearly during the last 4 years.
Inside e-commerceon-line retail is projected to greater than double from $75-85 billion in 2025 to $170-180 billion by 2030. E-services, together with journey, eating, training, insurance coverage and on-line subscriptions, are estimated at $120-130 billion by 2030, up from $45-55 billion in 2025.
Nonetheless, India’s on-line retail penetration stays modest in contrast with international friends. E-retail accounts for 6-7% of whole retail spending in India in 2025, in contrast with 31-33% in China and 15-17% within the US, the report famous.
The variety of web shoppers is projected to extend from 280–300 million in 2025 to 420–440 million by 2030. That is anticipated to be more and more pushed by smaller cities and middle-income segments as digital entry and logistics infrastructure deepen. Round 30% of present web shoppers come from rural India, whereas almost 45% are girls, reflecting the widening demographic base of digital commerce, it mentioned.
India’s commerce panorama is evolving right into a “linked commerce” mannequin, the place on-line and offline channels function in tandem somewhat than in competitors, in accordance with the report. It notes that 90-95% of web shoppers additionally buy offline, whereas almost half of offline consumers use digital channels for analysis earlier than making purchases.
Fast commerce increase
BCG highlights an accelerating premiumization developmentwith rising disposable incomes main customers to commerce up throughout classes reminiscent of attire, magnificence, electronics and residential merchandise, supporting larger common order values.
“Class-focused platforms account for roughly 63% of whole e-commerce spending, whereas horizontal marketplaces contribute round 31%, reflecting diversification in digital codecs. Rising fashions reminiscent of fast commerce and social and chat commerce have grown at over 50% CAGR (compound annual progress charge) between 2021 and 2025, outpacing total e-commerce progress,” it added.
Fast commerce alone has emerged as a $7-8 billion market in FY25, increasing at 110-130% CAGR over 2021–25, significantly in grocery and necessities, and is turning into structurally essential in metros with rising order frequency and basket sizes. Social and chat commerce can also be increasing quickly, significantly in city centres and tier 2 and three cities.
The BCG report additional pointed to rising participation of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and sellers on digital platforms, supported by enhancements in logistics networks and digital funds infrastructure, which may have longer-term implications for formalization and export enablement.
“There’s a robust case of India taking part in an essential position in international e-commerce fulfilment by means of its GCCs (international competency centres),” mentioned Ravi Saxena, chief government officer (CEO) and founding father of Wonderchef, a kitchenware producer. “Moreover this direct employment, there’s the snowball impact of elevated consumption resulting in larger employment in MSMEs who’re in a position to provide to manufacturers but in addition checklist their merchandise instantly and turn out to be entrepreneurs as effectively.”
In accordance with the BCG report, almost 90% of small on-line companies reported progress in gross sales, with many additionally increasing employment, whereas the time taken for manufacturers to scale to ₹100 crore in income has diminished from 11 years to 7 years, and innovation cycles have turn out to be two to a few instances sooner for online-led gamers.
Nonetheless, by 2030, with on-line penetration nonetheless beneath 10% of whole consumption, digital commerce is predicted to stay a comparatively small however fast-growing a part of India’s total retail and providers financial system, indicating that the following part of progress will seemingly come from deeper integration of digital capabilities right into a largely offline consumption base.
“India’s consumers have gotten extra numerous, with customers utilizing totally different codecs relying on their wants and maturity. Because the demographic mixture of web shoppers turns into extra democratic, platforms and types should design less complicated, safer, and extra seamless experiences throughout touchpoints,” mentioned Kanika Sanghi, companion and director, BCG. “The chance now could be to cut back friction, construct belief, and make multi-format journeys really feel intuitive for each shopper.”
McKinsey sees $200 bn market by 2030
McKinsey & Co., in a separate report launched earlier, estimates that India’s e-commerce market may develop to $180-200 billion by 2030 from $70-80 billion in 2024, with almost half of the incremental gross merchandise worth (GMV) anticipated to be pushed by MSMEs.
Whereas conventional marketplaces will proceed to account for round half of the expansion, the remainder is prone to come from direct-to-consumer (D2C) channels and fast commerce platforms, mentioned McKinsey.
As MSMEs search for extra versatile and lower-cost methods to succeed in customers, alternate channels reminiscent of brand-owned web sites, social media storefronts and fast commerce are anticipated to play a bigger position in shaping the following part of India’s digital commerce growth, it mentioned.
The McKinsey report highlighted that social commerce is redefining product discovery and engagement, rising as a robust catalyst for MSME-led progress in India.
The McKinsey report famous that Instagram and Fb commercials at the moment are outpacing search engines like google and yahoo and conventional e-commerce marketplaces as major discovery channels for MSME manufacturers.
In the meantime, the fast growth of digital commerce has additionally led to an increase in client complaints. In accordance with knowledge launched by the Division of Shopper Affairs, e-commerce corporations accounted for the biggest share of refund disputes dealt with by the Nationwide Shopper Helpline (NCH) over the previous 9 months, Mint reported on 17 February. Between 25 April 2025 and 31 January 2026, the NCH facilitated refunds amounting to ₹52 crore throughout 31 sectors by addressing 79,521 client complaints associated to refund claims. The e-commerce sector alone accounted for 47,743 grievances and ₹36.79 crore of refunds—almost 70% of the entire quantity facilitated in the course of the interval.