Shopping for a Canadian inventory after it surges exhausting from its highs can really feel like catching a falling knife. But it may additionally hand you the perfect type of setup: a robust enterprise that hits momentum. So let’s have a look at whether or not this Canadian inventory checks the bins.
EFR
Vitality Fuels (Tsx:FR) suits the “story inventory with actual property” bucket. It sits on the intersection of uranium, uncommon earths, and the West’s push to construct provide chains that don’t lean on China. That theme issues in 2026, as a result of governments and large clients preserve speaking about vitality safety, defence, and home manufacturing. Vitality Fuels owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, which provides it a strategic footprint that many friends lack.
The Canadian inventory additionally comes with temper swings. It may well run quick when uranium or uncommon earth headlines warmth up, and it may cool off simply as shortly when merchants take income. In late January 2026, the shares traded round $35, a surge of 375% within the final yr.
This offers you a clear narrative with out pretending you possibly can time the underside. It additionally retains expectations in verify. Even after a pullback from current highs, EFR can nonetheless sit far above the place it traded earlier within the cycle, so you don’t get a traditional “low cost and ignored” setup. You get “scorching theme, cooler value, show it subsequent.”
Earnings help
Now for the numbers. In Q3 2025, Vitality Fuels reported whole income of about US$17.7 million, and it nonetheless posted a internet lack of about $16.7 million, or $0.07 per share. That tells you the enterprise nonetheless sits in funding mode, and the market values it on what it may grow to be, not what it earns in the present day.
The near-term working image appears to be like extra encouraging in uranium. The Canadian inventory stated it bought 240,000 kilos of U3O8 in Q3 at a weighted common realized value of $72.38 per pound, for gross proceeds of about $17.4 million. Then it guided to stronger This fall uranium gross sales, with an anticipated 360,000 kilos bought and about $27 million in gross uranium gross sales income at roughly $74.93 per pound. That sort of replace helps buyers observe actual momentum, not simply narrative.
The following leg of the story leans closely on uncommon earths and scale. In January 2026, Vitality Fuels highlighted a refreshed feasibility view of its Toliara undertaking in Madagascar, together with an NPV of $1.8 billion and a ramp profile that factors to greater than $500 million of anticipated annual earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) within the mannequin. These are huge numbers, and may transfer sentiment quick, but in addition include “present me” threat round execution, timelines, and nation phrases.
Backside line
So can EFR flip round in 2026 whereas it sits beneath its current highs? It may well, because the Canadian inventory has tangible working updates in uranium, plus high-upside optionality in uncommon earths. The market tends to reward proof, and EFR retains giving buyers measurable checkpoints like gross sales volumes, realized pricing, and enlargement plans. Nonetheless, it’s essential to respect the dangers.
The corporate nonetheless runs losses, it relies on commodity pricing, and it may dilute or finance development when it chases huge tasks. In the event you can deal with volatility and also you desire a TSX title tied to uranium and uncommon earths with actual property behind it, EFR could make sense as a “purchase whereas it’s off the highs” turnaround guess for 2026.