As we warned earlier, the geopolitical escalation within the Center East and the strikes by the US and Israel on targets in Iran led to a pointy response in commodity markets in the beginning of the week. Oil and gold opened with an upward hole, whereas the greenback strengthened as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, nearer to the top of the week a part of these actions was corrected, and the important thing belongings as soon as once more entered a part of stability between geopolitical dangers and macroeconomic expectations.
The Buying Managers’ Indices (PMI) printed on March 02 in the US and the EU nations confirmed the preservation of average financial exercise. Inflation information (CPI) in Europe didn’t give markets a transparent sign, whereas the US labour market report usually confirmed the resilience of the American economic system.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair remained beneath regular strain from the greenback all through the week and confidently broke the 1.1765 help already in the beginning of the week. The ultimate notice sounded at 1.1616. The closest help is 1.1580, the subsequent one is 1.1530. If strain on the euro continues, a breakout of this degree could open the way in which to 1.1470-1.1490 and 1.1390. In case of restoration in danger demand and weakening of the greenback, a correction in the direction of 1.1700 and additional to the realm of 1.1765-1.1830 is feasible. A stronger rise could return quotes to the resistance at 1.1925.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin confirmed robust progress in the beginning of the week from 65,000 to 74,130. Nevertheless, it did not consolidate on the new native highs, and the BTC/USD pair returned to the realm of 68,000. Thus, the market nonetheless stays in a variety construction, and the zone of 71,000-72,260 retains the position of key resistance. A breakout of this vary will open the way in which to 75,500-80,000, with the subsequent goal for bulls remaining a return to the hall of 85,000-90,000. If risk-off sentiment strengthens, the closest help would be the space of 65,000-65,600, adopted by 62,415-63,000. A breakout of this degree will open the way in which to 59,785. The medium-term targets for bears stay at 54,000 and 49,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
Oil grew to become the primary beneficiary of the sharp geopolitical escalation. Towards the background of strikes on Iran and dangers to produce from the area, Brent quotes rose sharply in the beginning of the week and reached 92.00 {dollars} per barrel. This grew to become the strongest weekly motion in a number of years. By the top of the week the worth corrected barely – to 90.80. Within the quick time period, the important thing resistance zone stays the realm of 91.50-92.00. On the identical time, if tensions persist, an increase above 100.00 can’t be dominated out. If the state of affairs stabilises, a correction in the direction of the degrees of 84.25 and 80.50 is feasible, and a deeper correction – to 76.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Towards the background of rising geopolitical dangers and demand for safe-haven belongings, XAU/USD quotes reached 5,420 {dollars} per ounce. On the identical time, after the sharp rise a part of the motion was corrected, and gold completed the week at 5,174, inside the vary of 5,120-5,250. The bullish construction stays, with the closest targets at 5,450 and 5,595. On the identical time, the likelihood of additional correction is growing. The closest help is positioned within the zone of 5,050-5,120, adopted by 4,950-5,000 and 4,840-4,875.
📈 Key Occasions and Baseline Situations of the Week
Subsequent week, on March 11, inflation information (CPI) shall be launched in the US and Germany. On March 13, market consideration may even be centered on inflation expectations (Core PCE Value Index) and US GDP indicators (Q3 2025).
Baseline situations: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish whereas the worth stays beneath 1.1765. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish whereas the worth stays beneath 72,260. Brent – bullish whereas costs maintain above 84.25. XAU/USD – bullish whereas costs maintain above 5,050-5,120.
