The previous week confirmed the accuracy of most key forecasts. Within the US, the publication of the labour market report, in addition to information on enterprise exercise and inflation expectations, confirmed the heterogeneous macroeconomic image – labour market resilience was mixed with indicators of a slowdown in sure segments of the financial system. This elevated investor warning and triggered revenue taking. In Europe, PMI indicators and feedback from ECB representatives didn’t present clear alerts on financial coverage, protecting foreign money markets in a consolidation part. In commodity markets, the geopolitical issue continued to have an effect, inflicting sharp intraday fluctuations in oil and valuable metals.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week at 1.1815, making an attempt to stabilise after uneven dynamics in January. Costs are buying and selling close to key help ranges, whereas technical indicators level to a scarcity of robust directional momentum. A breakout of the 1.1775-1.1800 space could result in a decline in the direction of 1.1700, with the following help within the 1.1580-1.1620 zone, adopted by 1.1470-1.1500. On the identical time, an upward rebound from the present consolidation space can’t be dominated out. A breakout of the 1.1870-1.1900 stage would affirm bullish momentum and open the way in which in the direction of 1.2000 and 1.2080.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On 06 February, bitcoin fell to 2024 ranges. The low was recorded at 59,786, adopted by a rebound to the 69,000-70,000 space. Thus, the decline from the all-time excessive exceeded 50%. That is now not a correction after progress, however a part of weak demand in a risk-off atmosphere. The shortage of apparent drivers is forcing institutional traders to withdraw property from ETFs, strengthening bearish sentiment amongst retail traders as nicely. Within the worst-case state of affairs, by 2027 the asset worth might collapse to 40,000. Through the upcoming week, BTC/USD could try to proceed its rise in the direction of the 75,000-80,000 zone. If this resistance is damaged, the following goal for bulls shall be an try to return to the 85,000-90,000 vary. Sustained buying and selling under 75,000-80,000 retains elevated dangers of a bearish state of affairs.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
For the second consecutive week, Brent crude oil has been buying and selling close to the higher boundary of the long-term descending channel wherein it has been shifting since October 2023. The most recent level was set at 67.63 {dollars} per barrel. Additional motion shall be formed by geopolitical components. Bulls could try to check the 72.70 resistance zone with targets at 76.15 and 77.75. If the information background favours bears, their nearest goal would be the 66.00 space, adopted by 65.00 and the 62.75-63.50 zone.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the buying and selling week at 4,968 {dollars} per ounce, sustaining a large buying and selling vary and making an attempt to get well after the sharp decline two weeks earlier. The general image, each basic and technical, stays bullish, with targets at 5,180 and 5,450.
Nonetheless, one other correction in the direction of the medium-term ascending help within the 4,680-4,700 space can’t be dominated out. A assured breakout under 4,680 would cancel the bullish state of affairs and point out the event of a deeper correction in the direction of 4,200-4,350.
📈 Key Occasions and Baseline Eventualities of the Week
Within the upcoming week within the US, the important thing occasion would be the publication on 11 February of the January labour market report, postponed as a result of authorities shutdown. On Friday, market consideration can even be centered on inflation information (CPI for January). In Europe, the main focus will shift to macroeconomic statistics for This autumn 2025. In commodity markets, a separate driver would be the month-to-month OPEC report (MOMR) on 11 February.
Baseline situations: EUR/USD – reasonably bullish so long as the value holds above 1.1775. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish whereas the value stays under 75,500-80,000. Brent – cautiously bearish whereas quotes stay under 70.50. XAU/USD – bullish whereas costs maintain above 4,680-4,700.
