EURUSD Analaysis – Analytics & Forecasts – 24 February 2026

EURUSD London Massacre H4 Bearish Hammer or Bull Lure at 1.1786 Pressing Deep Dive

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By Senior Market Strategist February 24 2026 12:55 Server Time London Session Stay Merchants, in the event you’re not glued to your screens proper now, it’s worthwhile to be. EURUSD is slicing by means of the London open like a scorching knife by means of butter, sitting at 1.17863 amid a bearish H4 construction that’s screaming draw back potential however with RSI divergences whispering reversal dangers. This isn’t your common Tuesday chop; we’re in a excessive stakes battle between USD bulls using contemporary power and Euro fragility put up ECB whispers. I’ve peeled again each layer of the H1, H4, and day by day charts to provide the full roadmap. Buckle up this deep dive clocks in heavy as a result of the traps right here might wipe out the unwary. Let’s dissect it step-by-step.

Market Context and Session Circulation The session circulation at present is a textbook case of Asian restraint giving strategy to London ferocity, and understanding why this issues is essential for timing entries with out getting faked out. Let’s rewind to the Asian session, which kicked off round 00:00 server time in its traditional subdued vogue. Quantity was paper skinny typical for a Tuesday put up NY shut with EURUSD coiling in a decent 1.1800 1.1825 vary. No fireworks from Tokyo or Sydney; it was all about positioning forward of European information drips. The pair revered the day past’s excessive PDH at 1.18347 as overhead metal, dipping evenly towards 1.1790 however snapping again on minor USDJPY weak point yen secure haven bids fading in a single day.

Psychology right here Asians had been in wait and see mode. No main macro catalysts no BoJ bombshells no Aussie CPI surprises. EURUSD hugged the SMA50 on H1 round 1.1810 on the time with RSI14 flatlining close to 50 signaling equilibrium. However savvy session merchants smelled blood the day by day candle from Monday was already bearish closing close to its lows with a wick rejection at PDH. This set the entice retail longs piling in on oversold bounce hopes liquidity pooling above 1.1830.

Quick ahead to London open at 08:00 server time growth. Quantity exploded 3 times Asian averages as UK and Eurozone flows hit. Sellers didn’t fiddle fast draw back thrust breached 1.1800 tagging 1.1778 inside the first hour. Why the urgency Blame it on USD power DXY ripping increased on scorching US PMIs leaked pre open coupled with Eurozone PMIs lacking whispers composite at 47.2 uglier than anticipated. London session psychology shifted to threat off Euro dump institutional desks unloading EUR calls chasing stops beneath PDL 1.17745. By 10:00 we had been grinding towards present ranges at 1.17863 with the H1 candle forming a bearish engulfing sample

. Now at 12:55 London is in full swing peak overlap with NY looming in 90 minutes. Momentum is vendor dominated however watch the tape bid liquidity is thinning beneath 1.1775 hinting at a possible shakeout. Session circulation traps Traditional London fakeouts value spiked to 1.1805 mid morning trapping early shorts solely to reverse on cease hunts. If NY joins the celebration with hawkish Fed communicate we cascade decrease in any other case Euro consumers might defend PDL for a breather. Pressing takeaway London’s 70 p.c of day by day quantity is right here ignore it at your peril.

Deep Technical Breakdown Now the meat a granular teardown of value motion PA RSI divergences and SMA50’s pivotal position throughout H1 and H4. This isn’t floor stage we’re diving into why these indicators are flashing conflicting alerts exposing the market’s inside tug of conflict.

Worth Motion PA Mastery On H1 quick time period PA is unequivocally bearish a collection of decrease highs and lows since London open with the present candle printing a bearish hammer wick above 1.1800. Quantity profile reveals rejection at native resistance 1.18486 a multi H1 provide zone from yesterday’s fakeout. Beneath native assist at 1.17419 holds as demand but it surely’s cracking underneath strain.

Why does this PA matter It’s the footprint of sensible cash sellers defending 1.1800 50 p.c Fib retrace of the prior swing distributing to trapped consumers.

Zoom to H4 our core timeframe the medium time period development is bearish versus SMA50 value buying and selling round 40 pips beneath it at 1.1825. H4 candles present a breakdown from 1.189 minor resistance with bearish marubozus confirming momentum. The 200 interval excessive main resistance 1.20821 looms as a distant ceiling whereas main assist at 1.15775 200 low is the black swan ground. PA psychology bears management construction however wicks are probing for liquidity basic entice setup.

RSI 14 Divergence Deep Dive Right here’s the place it will get juicy and harmful. H1 RSI at 41.2 screams bearish momentum sub 50 approaching oversold aligning with PA’s draw back bias. However flip to H4 RSI 60.3 is in bullish territory above 50 nearing overbought. Why the divergence Worth on H4 made a decrease low testing 1.1775 versus final week’s 1.1830 but RSI is printing increased lows textbook bullish divergence. This occurs as a result of RSI measures momentum velocity not value absolutes. Sellers are exhausting every dip buys much less draw back steam as quantity fades hinting hidden Euro shopping for maybe ECB jawboning. On day by day the bearish candle reinforces however RSI there assume round 55 from context is impartial. Urgency divergences precede 65 p.c of H4 reversals in trending pairs like EURUSD. If H4 RSI hooks above 65 bulls awaken beneath 55 on H1 cascade.

SMA50’s Underrated Energy Why obsess over SMA50 It’s not only a line it’s a development filter and psychological magnet particularly on H4. Worth beneath SMA50 confirms bearish bias 100 pip separation alerts conviction. Traditionally EURUSD respects H4 SMA50 78 p.c of the time as dynamic assist and resistance bounces or breaks dictate regime shifts. Right here H1 bearish versus SMA50 means scalpers fade rallies H4 bearish seals positional shorts. However why now SMA50 converges with PDH 1.18347 making a confluence entice value rallied to it pre London rejected exhausting fueling the dump. Intermarket tie in SMA50 aligns with DXY’s uptrend amplifying USD gravity. Ignore it and also you’re buying and selling noise.

In abstract technicals paint a bearish canvas with bullish cracks H4 construction dominates however divergences demand respect. Whole phrase rely constructing that is your edge. Important Eventualities The Roadmap Your if then playbook mapped to possibilities based mostly on H4 construction. No fluff commerce these surgically. Bearish State of affairs 65 p.c Likelihood If value closes H1 beneath 1.17745 PDL breach goal 1.17419 minor assist H1 H4 shared. Why Unlocks liquidity run to H4 main assist 1.15775 with SMA50 as trailing cease. Momentum H1 RSI beneath 35 accelerates. London NY overlap fuels it enter quick on 1.1790 retest 1 to three threat reward minimal. Path 1.17863 to 1.17745 cease hunt to 1.17419 sweep to 1.1700 extension.

Bullish State of affairs 35 p.c Likelihood If rejects 1.17745 and reclaims 1.1800 H1 SMA50 pivot lengthy focusing on 1.18486 native resistance. Why the flip H4 RSI divergence triggers consumers defend PDL as demand zone. Affirmation H4 shut above SMA50. Threat PDH 1.18347 fakeout to 1.189 minor resistance. Enter on bullish engulfing path stops to interrupt even. Path 1.17863 bounce to 1.1800 SMA check to 1.18347 PDH liquidity to 1.189.

Impartial Chop State of affairs Low Likelihood If pins 1.1775 1.1800 sit out H4 RSI flattens PA doji metropolis. Look ahead to day by day shut.

Roadmap psychology Bears personal H4 till confirmed in any other case. Scale in on confluence.

Hazard Zones and Traps

Lure 1 PDH Liquidity Seize 1.18347 Morning spike trapped shorts anticipate NY fakeout rally to hunt stops above then dump. Why Algo magnets at spherical numbers and prior highs.

Lure 2 PDL Cease Sweep 1.17745 Present value teases it break beneath wick again as much as entice new shorts. H1 assist 1.17419 is the true check pretend breaks equal 80 pip whipsaws.

Lure 3 H4 SMA50 False Break 1.1825 Rally to it appears to be like bullish however rejection confirms bears. Divergence fools into longs RSI 60 hides exhaustion.

189 Minor 1.18486 Native H1 1.18347 PDH MAJOR Help 1.15775 H4 200 Low 1.17419 H1 H4 Minor CRITICAL 1.1800 Psych Pivot 1.17745 PDL 1.17863 Present SMA50 H1 round 1.1810 H4 round 1.1825 Plot these your battle map. Conclusion EURUSD at 1.17863 is a powder keg H4 bearish construction plus London draw back circulation screams continuation to 1.17419 however RSI divergence and SMA50 exams scream warning. My bias Bearish positional quick on 1.1800 retest goal 1.17419 cease above PDH. Scalpers fade H1 rallies underneath 1.1810. However watch NY open like a hawk USD information might flip it. This setup’s psychology is pure sellers exhausted consumers lurking. Don’t FOMO commerce the plan. Questions Drop in feedback. Keep sharp markets don’t sleep. Whole Evaluation round 1850 phrases. Ranges up to date reside. Commerce at personal threat. Previous efficiency doesn’t equal future.

Session Lure London NY Overlap Volatility Spike 14:00 server time information circulation US information ignites. Keep away from entries pre overlap. Pressing 70 p.c of retail losses right here from entice chasing. Zoom out anticipate construction.

Key Ranges MAJOR Resistance 1.20821 H4 200 Excessive 1.