Common tax refund is up 22%, Bessent says — what filers can count on

The common tax refund is 22% increased to this point this season, Treasury Secretary and performing IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent informed CNBC’s “Squawk Field” on Friday.

The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the IRS has not but launched official submitting knowledge. It is unclear what number of days of returns Bessent’s determine displays or what comparability interval he used.

Nevertheless, “early knowledge may be deceiving,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax coverage for the Bipartisan Coverage Middle, a nonprofit suppose tank, wrote in a tax season information on Jan. 22. 

In 2025, the common refund for particular person filers was $3,052 by means of Oct. 17, in keeping with the IRS.

Sometimes, filers obtain a refund once they overpay taxes all year long through paycheck withholdings or estimated funds. Alternatively, filers owe a stability once they do not pay sufficient.

Lately, IRS knowledge has mirrored a smaller refund through the starting of the tax season, however these funds have “risen sharply” in mid-February as soon as the IRS begins issuing refunds that embody the earned earnings tax credit score or further youngster tax credit score, Lautz wrote.

After the February peak, the typical refund has “declined barely” by means of the April 15 deadline, he wrote.

President Donald Trump has promised that 2026 would be the “largest tax refund season of all time” based mostly on adjustments enacted through his “large stunning invoice.”

The laws added new tax breaks for 2025, and the IRS didn’t alter paycheck withholdings, which might end in refunds for a lot of employees.

Nevertheless, there may very well be “quite a lot of variation between taxpayers,” Garrett Watson, director of coverage evaluation on the Tax Basis, beforehand informed CNBC.

Finally, the scale of your refund, or stability due, is determined by which new tax breaks apply to your state of affairs and the way a lot you paid all year long, consultants say.