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The common tax refund is 10.2% increased to date this season, in comparison with about the identical interval in 2025, in line with the newest IRS submitting knowledge. The year-over-year share change is down from the 14.2% improve reported final week.
As of Feb. 20, the common refund quantity for particular person filers was $3,804, up from $3,453 about one 12 months prior, the IRS reported on Friday.
The entire quantity refunded was about $109 billion, up 6.9% from 2025, in line with the IRS launch. However the whole returns processed have been down by 2.4%.
Amid shopper issues about affordability, the Trump administration has emphasised how Trump’s “massive lovely invoice” could influence the scale of tax refunds this season.
In a late January launch, the White Home stated common tax refunds may improve “by $1,000 or extra,” citing a number of media reviews that reference early October analysis from funding financial institution Piper Sandler.
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will leap by almost 20% this 12 months, with extra advantages flowing to middle- and upper-income households than normal, based mostly on adjustments enacted through Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
Nonetheless, particular person refunds may range based mostly on 2025 paycheck withholdings and which of Trump’s provisions influence their household’s state of affairs, specialists say.
Common tax refunds sometimes improve by late February
By legislation, the IRS cannot ship refunds claiming the earned earnings tax credit score or the refundable a part of the little one tax credit score, referred to as the extra little one tax credit score or ACTC, till Feb. 15.
Which means the company’s first two submitting season statistics releases, reflecting knowledge via Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively, didn’t embrace the hundreds of thousands of refunds with these credit.
“As we head into late February, the typical refund measurement pops — it will get bigger,” stated Andrew Lautz, director of tax coverage for the Bipartisan Coverage Middle, a nonprofit suppose tank.
From Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the typical tax refund measurement jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. However with restricted tax submitting knowledge, it is too early to make conclusions about common tax refunds this season, specialists say.
For 2025 returns, the utmost EITC is price as much as $8,046 for filers with three or extra qualifying kids. For 2024 returns, the common EITC cost was $2,916, in line with the IRS. Trump’s tax cuts didn’t change the EITC for 2025.
Trump’s laws made everlasting the next little one tax credit score and boosted the utmost tax break to $2,200. The refundable portion, ACTC, will proceed to regulate to inflation, however Trump’s cuts didn’t change the quantity from 2024. The ACTC is price as much as $1,700 for 2025.