BTCUSD ANALYSIS – Buying and selling Methods – 23 February 2026

By Senior Market Strategist | February 23, 2026 | 13:05 Server Time | BTCUSD Dwell Evaluation

Market Context & Session Circulate

It is Monday, February 23, 2026, and BTCUSD is buying and selling at 65,756 through the high-stakes London-New York session overlap at 13:05 server time. That is no strange begin to the buying and selling week—Bitcoin is staring down the barrel of a traditional post-weekend liquidity squeeze, amplified by the skinny volumes of the previous Asian session. Let’s rewind and unpack the session circulate meticulously as a result of in crypto, particularly BTC, the transition from low-volume Asian chop to the aggressive capital flows of London and New York could make or break multimillion-dollar positions.

The weekend was predictably quiet, with BTC consolidating across the 67,000-68,000 zone after Friday’s combined shut. However as Asia kicked off at 00:00 server time, we noticed the primary cracks: a refined drift decrease, testing the Earlier Day Low (PDL) at 67,758 with out conviction. Quantity was anemic—typical Sunday-Monday bleed from retail positioning—however the true story unfolded in Tokyo/Sydney hours. Sellers probed aggressively, pushing value all the way down to 65,800 by 04:00, flirting with the H4 minor assist at 65,575. RSI on H1 dipped towards 40, signaling waning momentum, but no clear break. Why? Asian session psychology is all about risk-off positioning; establishments front-run the London open, however with out macro catalysts (no recent Fed information or ETF flows in a single day), it was simply stop-hunting liquidity grabs above the 200-period low.

London open at 08:00 modified all the things. The session ignited with a flush under the PDL—value sliced by 67,758 like a sizzling knife, hitting intraday lows close to 65,650 by 10:00. This wasn’t random; it was a textbook liquidity raid. Huge gamers swept the resting stops under Friday’s low, fueling a 1.2% drop in below two hours. The present every day candle? A brooding bearish beast, already printing a wick-heavy doji-like construction with the physique firmly purple, excessive at 68,391 (PDH reclaim try failed), and low piercing prior helps. Quantity spiked 40% above Asian averages throughout London, confirming institutional promoting—seemingly Europeans de-risking forward of NY information dumps.

Now, at 13:05, we’re within the London-NY candy spot (08:00-12:00 NY), the place 70% of every day quantity materializes. Worth has stabilized at 65,756, hugging the H4 minor assist at 65,575 like a lifeline. Psychology right here is electrical: bulls are determined for a bounce, whispering about “oversold dip-buy,” whereas bears scent blood, eyeing the main 200-period low at 59,807. This overlap is the place traps multiply—NY quants layer in algos, and retail FOMO piles on. We have seen this film earlier than: 2025’s March Monday mirrored it, with a fakeout pump to PDH earlier than cascading decrease. Pressing watch: if NY open (13:30 server) brings USD energy (DXY teasing 105), anticipate extra ache. Session circulate screams warning—London drained the bulls, NY will determine the kill or the killswitch.

Deep Technical Breakdown

Diving into the charts, BTCUSD’s construction throughout timeframes reveals a powder keg: H4 bullish resilience clashing with H1 fragility and every day bearishness. We’re not skimming headlines right here—that is granular, psychology-infused evaluation. Begin with the H1 (short-term): development is bullish versus SMA50. Why does SMA50 matter so profoundly? In trending markets like BTC’s medium-term updrift, the 50-period SMA acts as dynamic assist—a psychological magnet the place consumers defend the “development line” etched by the previous 50 hours of value motion. Worth is hovering simply above it (implied round 65,600 based mostly on present ranges), however the true inform is RSI(14) at 44.0. Impartial territory, however in a bullish H1 context, it is a divergence warning.

Clarify the RSI divergence: value carved a decrease low under PDL (67,758 to 65,650), but H1 RSI refuses to plunge into oversold (<30). As an alternative, it's holding 44—a bullish divergence screaming "sellers exhausting." Momentum oscillators like RSI measure velocity; when value tanks however RSI flattens or curls up, it alerts hidden shopping for (accumulation). Psychologically, this traps bears shorting into assist— they've front-run the breakdown, however sensible cash absorbs. Native resistance at 68,691 (PDH zone) looms because the speedy upside take a look at; break it, and H1 flips aggressively bullish.

Zoom to H4 (medium-term goldmine): bullish vs SMA50RSI(14) at 54.6—prime neutral-positive for continuation. H4 is king for swing merchants as a result of it filters H1 noise, capturing the “true development” over 16-hour candles. SMA50 right here (seemingly ~65,400) is the warfare chest: value bounced off it thrice final week, forming a better low construction. Why pressing? Present value at 65,756 is a razor-thin 181 pips above minor assist (65,575)—a 0.3% buffer. Breach it, and we probe the psychological 65,000 roundie earlier than main assist at 59,807 (200-period low, etched in This autumn 2025 panic).

Main resistance at 91,570 (200-period excessive) is a distant dream, however minor 70,949 is the gateway—aligns with 1.618 Fib extension from current swing low. Worth motion (PA) psychology: right now’s bearish every day candle engulfs final week’s physique, a bearish engulfing sample trapping Friday longs. But H4 stays structurally greater highs/lows. Entice alert: false breakdown under 65,575 may wick-hunt to 65,000, then reverse—traditional bull entice in bull development. Day by day context amplifies: PDH 68,391 rejected twice right now, confirming overhead provide. Intermarket: BTC’s correlation to Nasdaq (0.85) means any tech selloff (good day, NVDA earnings hangover?) crushes it right here. Backside line: H4 bullish bias holds, however divergence/RSI setup calls for respect—65,575 is the fulcrum.

Essential Eventualities (The Roadmap)

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Bullish Roadmap (Major Bias – 55% Chance):

• If value holds >65,575 (H4 assist) and closes H1 above SMA50 with RSI >50… Bulls awaken.
• Then: Goal 1: 68,691 (PDH/native res)—fast 430-pip scalp. Momentum builds to 70,949 (minor res, Fib cluster) for 1,200+ pips. Day by day candle flips inexperienced, reclaiming 68k psychology.
• Invalid: Shut under 65,575 on H4 (uncommon Monday reversal sign). Psychology: FOMO dip-buyers flood in throughout NY, sweeping shorts.
• Why? H4 bullish development + RSI divergence = greater low formation. Anticipate 2-3% bounce by EOD.

Bearish Roadmap (Secondary – 45% Chance, Excessive Impression):

• If decisive break <65,575 (H4 shut under) with quantity spike and every day low growth…
• Then: Goal 1: 65,000 roundie (psych flush), then 59,807 (main assist)—5,000+ pip cascade. Opens door to 55k macro low.
• Invalid: Reclaim above 67,758 PDL intra-hour. Day by day bear candle accelerates on macro risk-off.
• Why? Day by day engulfing + London momentum bleed = cease cascade. NY information (ISM?) may ignite USD rally, crushing BTC.

Edge case: Consolidation chop between 65,575-67,758—anticipate H4 shut. Roadmap rooted in construction: bulls want assist maintain, bears want conviction break.

⚠️ Hazard Zones & Traps

⚠️ Entice #1: The Help Fakeout – Worth wicks under 65,575 to 65,400 (sweeping H1 stops), then snaps again above SMA50. Traditional bull entice in H4 uptrend—bears cowl in panic, fueling 68k rip. Seen 7x in 2025. Keep away from: No entries on wick alone.

⚠️ Entice #2: PDH False Break – Pump to 68,391 throughout NY open (retail FOMO), rejection into trapdoor selloff. Day by day excessive provide zone loaded—algos fade it ruthlessly.

⚠️ Hazard Zone: 65,575-65,800 Buffer – Razor-thin; 0.3% transfer erases H4 bias. Liquidity void under invitations 200-pip stops.

⚠️ Psych Entice: Monday Blues – Put up-weekend de-risking ignores H4 energy. Do not fade the every day bear blindly—anticipate affirmation.

⚠️ Macro Wildcard: Correlation Entice – BTC-Nasdaq sync means VIX spike tanks it. Watch SPX under 5,800.

Pressing: Scale out on traps—threat 0.5% per commerce max.

Key Ranges

Degree	Kind	Significance	Motion
91,570	Main Resistance	200-H4 Excessive	Promote Zone / Main High
70,949	Minor Resistance	Fib 1.618 / Subsequent Hurdle	Partial Revenue / Breakout Watch
68,691	Native Resistance	PDH Cluster	Upside Set off / Rejection Promote
67,758	PDL	Damaged Help / Reclaim Key	Bull Invalid Beneath
65,756	Present	—	Maintain Line
65,575	H4 Minor Help	Fulcrum / SMA50 Align	Purchase Dip / Bear Set off
59,807	Main Help	200-H4 Low	Closing Protection / Panic Purchase

Conclusion

BTCUSD at 65,756 is at a market-shaking inflection: H4 bullish fortress below siege by every day bear artillery. RSI divergences whisper resilience, SMA50 guards the gate, however London-NY flows demand vigilance—65,575 is do-or-die. Bulls: defend assist, goal PDH rip. Bears: break it, feast to 59k. Traps lurk in all places; commerce the roadmap, not emotion. We’re glued to screens—this Monday may etch 2026’s first legend. Place sensible, threat tight—fortune favors the ready. Keep sharp.

Disclaimer: Not monetary recommendation. Commerce at personal threat. Knowledge as of 13:05 server time.