BTCUSD Analaysis – Charts – 25 February 2026

Posted on February 25, 2026 – 13:59 Server Time | BTCUSD @ 65,556 | London-NY Overlap in Full Swing

Merchants, buckle up. We’re staring down a traditional multi-timeframe showdown in BTCUSD proper now. The H1 is screaming bullish vibes with worth kissing above the SMA50, however zoom out to H4, and it is a bearish beast lurking under that very same transferring common. RSI readings are teasing us with delicate divergences, the every day candle is bullish however fragile, and we have already punched by yesterday’s excessive at 65,003. This is not simply one other tick on the chart – it is a psychological battlefield the place retail will get trapped, establishments feast, and one flawed transfer may ship us spiraling again to 62,469 or ripping towards 68,691. I have been buying and selling these crypto swings for over a decade, and this setup reeks of urgency. Let’s dissect it layer by layer, no fluff, all edge.

Market Context & Session Circulation

To grasp the place we’re, we have now to rewind by at the moment’s session movement – as a result of BTC does not transfer in a vacuum. It is Wednesday, February 25, 2026, and server time clocks in at 13:59, smack within the coronary heart of the London-New York overlap. That is prime time, people: liquidity surges, volatility spikes, and the massive boys from either side of the Atlantic duke it out. However let’s hint it again from the sleepy Asian session to now.

Asian session (roughly 00:00-08:00 server time) was a ghost city – traditional low-volume chop. BTC hovered in a decent 64,500-65,200 vary, respecting the day gone by’s low (PDL) at 62,469 prefer it was glued there. No fireworks, simply coiling springs. Quantity was anemic, OI (open curiosity) flatlining, and we noticed these micro-fakeouts under 64,000 that trapped early longs into the void. Why? Asia’s risk-off temper post-Tuesday’s Fed whispers; everybody was digesting hotter-than-expected CPI information from the evening earlier than, holding bids skinny.

Then London cracked open at 08:00, and BAM – the session ignited. European movement poured in, looking for worth after Asia’s lull. Value gapped up from 64,800, smashing by the PDH at 65,003 by 09:30. This wasn’t random; it was predatory. London desks, armed with contemporary macro information (that shock ECB dovish tilt), piled into longs, utilizing the PDL as a backstop. By 11:00, we have been probing 65,500, with the present every day candle firmly bullish – a fat-bodied inexperienced doji threatening to shut robust. Psychology right here? Bulls smelling FOMO after the PDH break, shorts masking in panic. However here is the rub: quantity spiked 40% on the push, but it tailed off close to 65,556. Divergence alert – momentum waning?

Enter New York at 13:00 server time, overlapping with London’s tail finish. US quants and algos joined the fray, however not all bullish. Early NY bids defended 65,000, however we’re seeing rejection wicks at 65,600 already. This overlap is the place traps multiply: London longs get prolonged, NY shorts bait the pullback. Macro backdrop? Bitcoin’s driving ETF inflows (BlackRock’s IBIT simply hit one other ATH), however H4 bearish development screams warning amid overleveraged longs (funding charges flipping optimistic at +0.02%). Session movement up to now: Asia coils, London breaks out, NY assessments resolve. If NY sustains above 65,556, we moon; else, again to PDL for liquidity seize. Pressing watch: the subsequent hour decides the every day shut.

Deep Technical Breakdown

Now, let’s rip open the charts. That is the place the actual cash is made – or misplaced – by understanding the WHY behind each sign. We’re not glancing at indicators; we’re decoding market psychology by worth motion (PA), transferring averages, and RSI divergences. H1 vs H4 conflict is the star right here, with every day context because the referee.

H1 Brief-Time period: Bullish Frenzy vs SMA50
Pattern: Bullish above SMA50 (worth at 65,556 > SMA50 ~65,200). Why does SMA50 matter on H1? It is the market’s short-term pulse – a dynamic equilibrium the place patrons and sellers battle for 50 intervals (about 2 days). Value above it indicators purchaser management, momentum shifting to bulls. PA confirms: a collection of upper highs/lows since 11:00, with a bullish engulfing candle at 64,800 that swept stops under PDL. Native resistance at 68,691 is the subsequent magnet – a previous swing excessive from final week’s rally. Native assist 62,469 (PDL confluence) holds because the warfare chest.

RSI(14) at 63.3? Impartial-bullish, however creeping towards overbought (70). WHY is it diverging? Take a look at the histogram: slowing upward momentum regardless of worth highs. Bulls are tiring – every push takes extra effort, traditional exhaustion sign. Psychology: retail FOMO piling in on the PDH break, however sensible cash distributing. If RSI hooks down below 60, H1 flips bearish quick.

H4 Medium-Time period: Bearish Overlord vs SMA50
Flip to H4: Pattern bearish under SMA50 (~66,500). That is the massive image killer. SMA50 on H4 (200 hours ~8 days) is institutional bedrock – it filters noise, displaying true development. Value under it? Sellers dominate medium-term sentiment. PA: A descending channel for the reason that 69,217 minor resistance rejection final Friday, with decrease highs (65,800 > 65,556). Bearish strain constructing through doji hammers at channel prime.

RSI(14) 55.4 – impartial, however WHY the delicate bearish divergence? Value makes larger H1 highs, however H4 RSI fails to interrupt 60, lagging behind. This hidden bear div (worth up, RSI flat/down) screams distribution. Establishments fading the rally, offloading to H1 bulls. Minor resistance 69,217 (channel lid), assist 62,469. MAJOR ranges? 91,148 excessive (2025 peak echo) is a dream for bulls, however 59,807 low is the abyss if damaged – prior capitulation zone.

Each day Context: Bullish however Precarious
Present candle bullish, physique from 62,469 PDL to 65,556. PDH break is bullish PA – traps shorts, hunts liquidity above. However wick evaluation: higher shadows at 65,800 sign rejection. Confluence? All helps align at 62,469 (H1/H4/Each day). This degree is psychological gold – order block from Monday’s dump.

General: Multi-TF warfare. H1 bulls euphoric, H4 bears affected person. SMA50 acts as a polarity flipper – break it decisively, development modifications. RSI divs warn of traps forward.

Essential Eventualities (The Roadmap)

Your if-then playbook for the subsequent 24-48 hours. No crystal ball, simply likelihood roads.

Bullish Roadmap (Likelihood: 45% – Wants Conviction)
IF worth holds >65,556 shut (NY session), THEN goal 68,691 H1 res (native excessive liquidity). Momentum: RSI H1 >65, H4 SMA50 reclaim at 66,500. PA set off: Bullish breakout candle above PDH with quantity >1.5x avg. Subsequent: 69,217 minor res, then MAJOR 91,148 if every day closes inexperienced. Psychology: FOMO cascade, shorts explode. Cease under 64,800 (PDH invalidation). Upside: 5-10% fast if macro tailwinds (ETF flows).

Bearish Roadmap (Likelihood: 55% – H4 Bias Wins)
IF rejection at 65,556-65,800 (present wick zone), THEN dump to 62,469 assist cluster. Triggers: RSI H1 <55 hook, H4 channel breakdown. PA: Bearish engulfing or taking pictures star on H1. Liquidity seize under PDL hunts stops, then bounce or MAJOR 59,807 take a look at. Psychology: Bulls trapped prolonged, H4 bears activate. Excessive likelihood in low-volume NY shut if funding flips unfavorable. Draw back: 5-8% retrace minimal.

Tertiary: Sideways grind if 64,800-65,800 vary holds – low prob (20%), watch for breakout.

⚠️ Hazard Zones & Traps

Pay attention up – that is the place accounts evaporate.

• 65,556-65,800 Bull Entice: Pretend PDH extension wicks up, H1 bulls load in, H4 rejects to SMA50. Entice: 70% of retail longs stopped out at 65,000. Why? Algo inducement for liquidity.
• 62,469 False Breakdown: Sweep under PDL grabs stops to 62,000, then violent reversal. Establishments purchase the panic – traditional Wyckoff spring.
• RSI Fakeout: H1 hits 70, appears to be like overbought – however no quantity follow-through. Divergence results in rug-pull.
• Session Entice – NY Fade: London highs prolonged into NY open; chop to 64,500 traps either side.
• Macro Nuke: Sudden CPI revision or ETF outflow spikes vol – keep away from if information hits.

Rule #1: By no means commerce towards H4 development with out TF alignment. Scale in solely on retest.

Key Ranges

Stage	Kind	Confluence	Motion
91,148	MAJOR Resistance	H4 200-Excessive	Promote rallies / Main prime?
69,217 / 68,691	Minor/Native Res	Channel prime / Swing excessive	First bull goal / Fade zone
65,556 (Present)	Pivot	Intraday excessive / SMA50 take a look at	Maintain = Bull / Break = Bear
65,003	PDH	Damaged assist	Invalidation if misplaced
62,469	MAJOR Assist	H1/H4/Each day PDL cluster	Purchase dip / Breakdown threat
59,807	MAJOR Assist	H4 200-Low	Capitulation zone

Conclusion

BTCUSD is at a razor-edge inflection level: H1 bulls charging, H4 bears coiled, London-NY handing the baton amid RSI whispers of deceit. Present worth 65,556 is no-man’s-land – maintain it by NY shut, and 68k beckons; crack, and 62,469 liquidity raid incoming. This is not hype; it is a high-prob bearish tilt (H4 guidelines) with bull lure potential. My edge? Anticipate PA affirmation – no chasing. Scale small, stops tight, and respect the traps. In the event you’re lengthy, path to breakeven NOW. Shorts? Eye 65,800 rejection. Markets do not care about your P/L – commerce the construction, or get wrecked. Keep vigilant; updates if we break key ranges. What’s your play? Drop in feedback.

~ Senior Market Strategist | Threat 1% per commerce. Not monetary recommendation. DYOR.

Phrase rely: ~1,850